The frenzy
of March Madness presents what many think is the best basketball
of the year. Enthusiasts watching the tournament often root with
much hope, but without realistic expectation of the final outcome.
For those who want more than the ramblings of sportscasters and
sportswriters I present insights that may help you predict the
final outcome of the game and the tournament. In any case you
will better know how your team is doing.
1-The number one
principle of basketball is that basketball is not a game of finesse: basketball is a game of brute strength, height, speed,
and quickness. Finesse teams rarely
do well because they depend on outside shooting. And shooting
percentage readily goes south against good defenses. Physical
characteristics are constant and can be depended on for important
chores like rebounding and defense. Just noting the height of
the players on one team, compared to the opponent, gives you
a valuable clue about how well your team can do. Look for speed,
agility, and strength differences as well.
2-Another factor
easy to notice is from where the team shoots. A team shooting from one foot, even if they miss,
will eventually do better than a team shooting from the 3-point
line. Expect a team regularly shooting one-footers to either
keep the lead or readily catch up to a team shooting outside
shots
3-What goes on
in the "blood and guts" area under the basket is
a most important factor. Take your
eyes off the ball for a minute to look at the battle under the
boards. Notice which teams:
a. rebound well on offensive and defensive boards
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b. box out and get rebounding position
c. clog up the middle on defense, preventing cutting
d. pick well in this area
e. pass and cut well into the low post
If a team controls this area, then they will probably win the
game.
4-Another very important
factor is team defense. Since
any one offensive player can usually score on any one defensive
player, all defensive players must help out move to cover
the ball. To do this defensive players must continuously watch
the ball, a skill that is easily noticed. Good team defense makes
all shots in the "blood and guts" area difficult and
keeps the score low.
5-Besides defensive
rebounding, the offense must be coordinated enough so
that when the ball goes up offensive players go for the rebound. Effective offenses always have players
in position for rebounds.
6-Here are a few
obvious individual skills to look for. Are players:
a. in defensive position with the body bent at the knees, not
at the waist, and feet slightly greater than shoulder width apart?
b. on defense standing flatfooted or on the balls of their feet?
c. on offense dribbling while going nowhere or continuously moving
the ball?
These indications allow you to confidently
predict who will win or which games will be close. Remember the
general rule is that the strong survive. Big, fast, quick, athletic
teams usually beat teams of lesser athleticism. The best coaches
know this; now you do too.
Your comments are welcome.
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